Asher's Blog

One of the most dangerous things in life and business is not ignorance. It is assumption.

Ignorance at least knows that it does not know. Assumption, on the other hand, behaves like knowledge. It walks into the room with confidence, it shapes decisions quietly, and it often goes completely unchallenged until reality arrives to correct it.

Many of the biggest mistakes people make are not because they lacked intelligence or experience, but because they built entire strategies on assumptions that were never tested.

Over time, I have realized that assumptions are everywhere. They sit inside our plans, our relationships, our businesses, and even our personal expectations. The tricky thing is that they rarely introduce themselves clearly. They hide inside phrases like “of course,” “everyone knows,” “it will probably,” or “that should work.”

In business, assumptions are often the invisible architecture of strategy. Every product plan, market expansion, hiring decision, or investment is built on a series of beliefs about how the world works. The problem is that people and markets change faster than our assumptions do.

A classic example of the danger of assumptions is the story that we have read about so many times, of Kodak. For most of the 20th century, Kodak dominated the global photography market. At its peak in the 1990s, the company controlled nearly 90% of film sales in the United States. Ironically, Kodak engineers actually invented one of the first digital cameras in 1975. The company knew the technology existed, but leadership assumed that consumers would always prefer film because film printing was the core of Kodak’s business model.

That assumption delayed Kodak’s full embrace of digital photography, and by the time the company tried to pivot aggressively, competitors had already taken the lead. In 2012, Kodak filed for bankruptcy protection. The company did not fail because it lacked technology. It failed because it trusted an assumption that the market had already begun to abandon.

Assumptions are not limited to corporations; they are deeply human. In relationships, people often assume intentions without asking questions. A delayed response becomes interpreted as disrespect. A short conversation becomes interpreted as indifference. A change in behavior becomes interpreted as betrayal. Many conflicts escalate not because of facts, but because of stories we silently create to explain incomplete information. I have often wondered how some of my past friendships might have turned out if we had not both carried assumptions that slowly hardened into beliefs and eventually became so entrenched that they were almost impossible to undo.

Psychologists refer to this as “the fundamental attribution error,” where we attribute other people’s behavior to character rather than circumstance. In other words, we assume motives when we actually lack evidence. In leadership, assumptions can quietly weaken entire organizations. A leader may assume the team understands the strategy when in reality the message never landed. A founder may assume customers clearly see the value of a product when the messaging is actually confusing. A company may assume its culture is strong simply because people appear productive.

But assumptions are not inherently bad. In fact, they are necessary. Every plan requires assumptions because the future cannot be predicted with certainty. The real issue is not having assumptions; the real issue is treating them as facts rather than hypotheses. The best leaders and builders treat assumptions as temporary scaffolding rather than permanent foundations. They ask questions like: What must be true for this plan to work? What evidence supports our belief? What would prove this assumption wrong?

This mindset is deeply embedded in scientific thinking. The entire scientific method is built around testing assumptions through experimentation. A hypothesis is proposed, evidence is gathered, and the idea is either strengthened or discarded based on results. Science progresses not by protecting assumptions, but by challenging them. The same approach applies powerfully in business. Eric Ries, author of The Lean Startup, famously emphasized the importance of identifying “leap-of-faith assumptions.” These are the critical beliefs that determine whether a business model will succeed or fail. Instead of building large systems around them blindly, successful startups test them early and cheaply.

For example, before building complex products, many founders now test whether customers actually want the solution. Instead of assuming demand exists, they validate it through experiments, prototypes, and conversations. I remember being alarmed when I figured out that ChatGPT couldn’t remember/recall my instructions. It was intriguing, and this was before Sam actually pronounced the updates when it finally arrived. 

In my own journey, what I am learning now is how to test our hypothesis. This itself is a skill that involves strategic distribution and the MVP. I have learned that many delays, frustrations, and misalignments often trace back to a simple assumption that went unexamined or a hypothesis test criteria that was wrongly set. The painful thing about assumptions is that they often feel correct until they collide with reality. 

But there is also a powerful opportunity here. When you begin to identify your assumptions clearly, your thinking becomes sharper. Your strategies become more adaptable and your decisions become less fragile. Instead of saying, “This will work,” you begin to say, “This will work if these conditions hold true.” That subtle difference introduces humility into decision-making. It also introduces flexibility because when assumptions change, strong leaders adjust without ego.

The world moves quickly. Markets evolve. People change. Technology reshapes entire industries in a matter of months. So, if your thinking is rigidly tied to yesterday’s assumptions, your strategy will slowly drift away from reality. But if you regularly revisit and challenge your assumptions, you stay aligned with the present.

Albert Einstein once said, “Assumptions are made and most assumptions are wrong.” While that may sound pessimistic, it actually highlights something empowering. The goal is not to eliminate assumptions, because that would make planning impossible. The goal is to expose them, test them, and update them continuously. In many ways, progress belongs to those who are brave enough to question what they think they know. Because the moment you challenge an assumption, you create space for discovery. 

I wish you well.